The Bullshitter Toolbox: A Theory of Mind
A way to differentiate the pro bullshitter from the occasional bullshitter
A recent online exchange reminded me of something about bullshitters that differs from the kind of knee-jerk and almost instinctually defensive responses we often see. That is, that bullshitters are not just flailing around blindly hoping to hit the mark. They have theory of mind.
You see, the bullshitter needs to be able to put him or herself in your place. They need to try to figure out what they think you know and don't know or what you believe and don't believe. This is a way to tell the difference between a professional bullshitter and someone who is just engaging in bullshit because they want to be right about something or win an argument.
This fellow I'm talking about said that everyone liked New Coke when it came out. The taste tests proved it. Customers only thought they preferred classic Coca-Cola due to nostalgia and the power of advertising. This is a prevalent myth: Advertising alone can cause people to remain loyal to a product regardless of its quality. People will continue drinking Coke even though they don't like it as much as they think. The interplay between marketing and preference is complex, but no amount of marketing can save a bad product.
You can read about what happened when New Coke was released in 1985. You can also learn why the taste test performed by Pepsi during the Pepsi Challenge were scientifically unreliable and flawed.
When I tried to explain to this fellow why the taste tests that Coca-Cola conducted were unreliable, just as the taste tests done by Pepsi in the "Pepsi Challenge" were, he argued that Diet Coke was simply New Coke with a different sweetener. Since Diet Coke is the number-two soft drink in the world, how could people have hated New Coke?
This was a ludicrous argument. I had tasted New Coke (this fellow was too young). New Coke tasted nothing like Diet Coke. Diet Coke started with saccharin alone as its sweetener, then moved to saccharin with aspartame, and after a year, it was using only aspartame. But none of this matters. You see, Diet Coke came out in 1982! New Coke came out in 1985. Diet Coke was not reformulated from New Coke. This is impossible.
Muddying the Waters
This should have been the end of any rational argument. But when I explained this to the confused fellow, he ignored it. He doubled down. He laid INFO on me. What followed was a smorgasbord of hastily Googled (so I surmised) information about artificial sweeteners.
He had shifted the discussion to Diet Coke and artificial sweeteners, and his original statement about New Coke was lost somewhere in the ether. None of this info supported his original statement in any way. He inserted nonsense jargon like 'doesn't alter the base drink,’ seemingly unaware that sensory panel experiments have been conducted. He repeated what I had said about different people perceiving the bitterness of artificial sweeteners more strongly than others, as if I had never said it.
He ended with "New Coke is still taught in all the marketing classes.” This is like saying "the law of thermodynamics is taught in all the physics classes."
Theory of Mind
Trust me, bullshit like this is hard to tolerate but easy to spot. The interesting thing is that this fellow had displayed that one sure-fire attribute of the bullshitter. This is how I know he was only interested in winning an argument and not very concerned with what is true. He had a theory of mind
In other words, he had thought about what I knew and didn't know. Desperate to win, he thought, maybe he doesn't know this fact or that fact. If I throw all this "knowledge" his way, he'll think, or other people will think, that I am knowledgeable, and therefore correct.
Bullshitters and the Truth
You see the defining mark? Bullshitters do not care about the truth. But they care that you care about the truth. They will try to manipulate their audience, preying on this concern for truth. This particular person, though, is not a professional bullshitter. I doubt he was aware he was bullshitting at all. We all bullshit occasionally. It's part of human nature. What's important is to be able to recognize not only the bullshit of others, but your own.
The True Bullshitter Plies His Craft
A more sophisticated bullshitter would have done his homework better. No, not about New Coke, but about me. A true bullshit artist would not have tried to guess what I know. He would have tried to familiarize himself with my state of knowledge and what I do. He would have then been able to choose his bullshit more carefully.
Perhaps he might have thought I would be particularly swayed by jargon and employed more of it. He may have focused more on marketing, since I don’t write about marketing as much as I do food science. Instead, this fellow guessed about my knowledge and therefore fell short of the mark. Regardless, both the occasional bullshitter and the true bullshitter will be quite concerned with what you know and don't know!
Stay Focused!
The way to combat the type of info-dump that results is to stay focused on the target. Muddying the waters, shifting the goal-posts, and all the other common tactics of bullshit are not designed to convince you of anything; they are designed to wear you out and make you cry uncle. The bullshitter wants knows you don't want to just keep arguing forever when it's clear it's a waste of time. They, on the other hand, tend to have all the time in the world. When you walk away, they will consider it a win. This fellow was convinced that if he muddied the waters enough, it would erase his previous blunder. This face-saving maneuver is just being human, but it doesn’t mean it’s not bullshit.
Don't allow the bullshitter to shift your focus. Ignore irrelevant information unless it is central to your own argument. Stay focused on the original premises and conclusions someone makes. And when the bullshitter tries to shift focus elsewhere, call them on it and stubbornly refuse to allow the conversation to drift off randomly into uncharted waters.
Or, perhaps, don’t be like me. Don’t argue at all. Instead, just learn to recognize the typical signs of bullshit to arm yourself against misinformation.